After nailing a 4/1 winner with Brighton at Chelsea in midweek, Jones Knows has three main bets to attack across the New Year weekend.
How did our bet do in midweek?
Just lovely, thanks for asking. A 2pts play on Brighton to have 10 shots and with a 2 handicap vs Chelsea landed with relative ease after Graham Potter’s men played with their usual bravery, surpassing the 10 shots line with 40 minutes to play. That victory takes us to 43 points of profit for the season. An ultimately frustrating punting year, soured by some bad-beats to James Ward-Prowse and Ruben Dias – nope, not over it yet, has ended with some cheer.
Let’s bring 2022 in with some more winners, shall we? I’ve got three bets to attack…
P L = 43
2pts on Arsenal 2 handicap, under 3.5 goals and under 50 match booking pts (100/30 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
With Arsenal coming in the fresher team too having not played since Boxing Day, the case for their fixture with Man City to be competitive is a strong one. I’d not put anyone off having a stab at the Arsenal double chance at 6/4 with Sky Bet, but I’m taking a more cautious route and backing them with a 2 goal start so they can win, draw or lose by one. In their last 18 away days against top-eight sides, Man City have only won four times by more than one goal. It’s a job-done mentality rather than an all-conquering one for Pep Guardiola in these types of tricky games.
I’m happy to throw in the game to be a card friendly affair in order to boost the price. These two teams are notoriously well behaved in their matches. In 2021, only West Ham have seen less yellow cards given to their opponents than Arsenal (50) and Man City (53) when assessing ever-present Premier League teams. It makes the under 50 booking points very appealing at 4/6 with Sky Bet so I’m happy to sprinkle a bit of that across a nice 100/30 same-game multi-bet price up by Sky Bet.
1pt on Lucas Moura to have a shot on target vs Watford and Micheal Keane to have a shot vs Brighton (3/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
Two shots prices stood out to me this weekend, so let’s combine them, shall we?
One Tottenham attacker that remains overpriced in an array of markets is Lucas Moura, who is revelling playing with freedom in a swashbuckling attack with Harry Kane and Heung-Min Son. The Brazilian is being encouraged to play in more central areas, posting five shots on goal, including a goal against Crystal Palace and three shots on goal, all on target, in just 28 minutes of action in the draw with Southampton. The evens for him to register a shot on target in this game rates as a very strong wager against such timid opposition.
Double him up with Michael Keane.
Granted, Brighton were remarkably impressive at Stamford Bridge in midweek but one area where they struggled was their inability to defend set pieces. That probably stems from Lewis Dunk being missing. Over their last five fixtures, Brighton have shipped 5.2 shots per game from set pieces, the third-highest average of all Premier League teams during that period.
With him still in the treatment room, Everton should be confident of getting plenty of joy from those areas.
My eyes have been drawn to the 10/11 on Michael Keane to have one or more shots at goal. The Everton centre-back carries a big threat when venturing forward and has fired a shot in 12 of his 17 appearances this season.
I’m all over a Liverpool away win and the match to go over the shots lines priced up by Sky Bet.
Liverpool head to Stamford Bridge on the back of a defeat to Leicester but it’s not a time to panic for them. The attacking process remains frighteningly good, averaging just over 2.5 expected goals per 90 minutes in their last eight fixtures. Chelsea have kept just one clean sheet in their last eight Premier League games. It’s hard to see them improving that record against the rampant Reds forward line.
With the expected match scenario being one of high tempo, goals and draws being no good to either team, the match shots market is also worth a visit. Liverpool are averaging 19.5 shots per 90 minutes this season and I’d expect them to hit just below that number in this one as Chelsea are shipping more shots on their goal than in their early season games. Brighton managed 18 in midweek, Leeds hit 12 and Watford 14. With Tuchel’s team unlikely to be allowed to sit back by the home crowd, they’ll be flying forward and should also be relied on to get shots away. That makes the shots lines with Sky Bet very appealing with 27 (11/10), 29 (15/8) and 31 (3/1) worth a nibble.