premier-league-previews:-tottenham-vs-brighton-&-more

Premier League previews: Tottenham vs Brighton & more

Team news, stats, predictions and how to follow the Premier League this weekend, including Leicester vs Newcastle, live on Sky Sports.

Tottenham vs Brighton – Saturday, 12.30pm

Team news

Tottenham will be without Matt Doherty for the Saturday lunchtime clash with Brighton.

The defender has been ruled out for the season with a knee injury sustained in last week’s win at Aston Villa.

Ryan Sessegnon is fit enough to start but Japhet Tanganga (knee) and Oliver Skipp (groin) remain out.

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FREE TO WATCH: Highlights from Tottenham’s win against Aston Villa in the Premier League.

Brighton boss Graham Potter will be without Shane Duffy and Steven Alzate for their trip to north London.

Midfielder Alzate has been ruled out through illness while Duffy is away from training due to a longer term thigh injury.

Adam Webster returned from a groin problem in their 2-1 victory over Arsenal last week and Potter confirmed he could feature once again but is not fit enough to start yet.

Jones Knows prediction

I am always drawn to the Brighton shots market when they take on one of the Champions League chasers as the markets tend to underestimate their lines.

In nine fixtures against the ‘big six’ this season, Graham Potter’s team have averaged 12.1 shots per 90 minutes, playing with their usual adventure and bravery albeit without much clinical edge. But it’s this lack of clinical edge that means they are always chasing the game which has a huge effect on their need to get shots away at goal.

Although I do not see them having enough quality to get a result in the match market, it’s a case of take your pick from the Brighton players with Leandro Trossard (4/5 with Sky Bet), Enock Mwepu (4/5), Danny Welbeck (4/5) and Lewis Dunk (7/2) all eye-catching plays to register two shots or more.

However, my eyes are drawn to Alexis Mac Allister, who is also 4/5 with Sky Bet for two or more shots.

He has been peppering the opposition goal with strikes. No player in the Premier League without a goal in the last six games has managed more shots on goal than Mac Allister (25) with seven of those coming in the 0-0 draw with Norwich. As long as he starts in his usual position just off the striker, he’s in a great spot to have two or more shots at goal.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1 | BETTING ANGLE: Alexis Mac Allister to have two or more shots (5/6 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)

Opta stats

  • Tottenham have won all four of their Premier League home games against Brighton – only against Bournemouth (5/5) do they have a better such 100% record in the competition.
  • Brighton have won just one of their nine away league games against Spurs (D2 L6), losing each of the last five in a row since a 1-0 victory in October 1981.
  • Tottenham won the reverse fixture against Brighton 2-0 and have also beaten the Seagulls in the FA Cup this term. The last English club Spurs won three games against in a single season were Aston Villa in 2013-14.
  • Brighton won 2-1 at Arsenal last week – the only team in Premier League history to win away at both Arsenal and Spurs in consecutive Premier League matches are Hull City in October 2008.
  • Tottenham have scored at least twice in each of their last seven Premier League games – only once have they had a longer such run, doing so in 11 consecutive games between September and December 2011.

How to follow: Follow Tottenham vs Brighton in our dedicated live match blog. Highlights will also be published on the Sky Sports digital platforms and the Sky Sports Football YouTube channel from 5.15pm on Saturday.

Man Utd vs Norwich – Saturday, 3pm

Team news

Manchester United will be without their two main defensive midfielders for the visit of Norwich on Saturday, with Fred and Scott McTominay both ruled out.

McTominay had already been out before Fred suffered a hip issue in last weekend’s 1-0 defeat to Everton.

The two are among five players ruled out of Saturday’s match, along with Raphael Varane, Edinson Cavani and Luke Shaw, with the latter now expected to miss the rest of the season.

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FREE TO WATCH: Highlights from Everton’s win against Manchester United in the Premier League.

Norwich will be without on-loan United full-back Brandon Williams, who is ineligible to play against his parent club.

Scotland midfielder Billy Gilmour has recovered from Covid-19 after missing the win over Burnley, while Poland winger Przemyslaw Placheta (ankle) is also available again having resumed full training.

American forward Josh Sargent (ankle) is no longer wearing a protective boot, but is not yet in contention, while Adam Idah (knee) and defender Andrew Omobamidele (back) are long-term absentees. Turkey defender Ozan Kabak (hamstring) is out for the season and now back at parent club Schalke.

Jones Knows prediction

This might be the weekend Manchester United fans to take that trip to IKEA rather than suffer more torture.

Talking of wardrobes, I quite fancy Harry Maguire to score.

One area Norwich struggle from that is not overly obvious from the raw numbers is their weakness defending set pieces. They have only conceded eight goals from corners this season – a fair return – but the underlying numbers paint a different picture. They have shipped an expected goals figure of 16.68 from set-pieces, excluding penalties – only Leicester have posted a higher return.

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FREE TO WATCH: Highlights from Norwich’s win over Burnley in the Premier League.

Opposition players have fired 145 shots from set-piece situations against Norwich – no team have conceded more. That makes our old friend Maguire a play at the prices. He can be backed at 7/1 with Sky Bet to find the net.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-0 | BETTING ANGLE: Harry Maguire to score (7/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)

Opta stats

  • Manchester United have won 12 of their last 15 Premier League games against Norwich (L3), winning each of their last four in a row against the Canaries.
  • Norwich have won just one of their last 12 away games against Manchester United in all competitions (D1 L10), winning 2-1 in the Premier League in December 2015.
  • Manchester United have lost two of their last four home Premier League games against sides starting the day bottom of the table (W2), after losing just one of their first 21 such games in the competition (W16 D4). Those two most recent defeats came against West Brom in April 2018 and Sheffield United in January 2021.
  • Manchester United have lost two of their last four Premier League games (W1 D1), having lost just one of their previous 15 following Ole Gunnar Solskjær’s departure (W8 D6). The Red Devils last lost consecutive league games in November 2021.
  • Norwich beat Burnley 2-0 at Carrow Road last time out, just their fifth Premier League victory of the season. However, their previous four victories came in two lots of consecutive wins, including one home win and one away win both times.

How to follow: Follow Manchester United vs Norwich in our dedicated live match blog. Highlights will also be published on the Sky Sports digital platforms and the Sky Sports Football YouTube channel from 5.15pm on Saturday.

Southampton vs Arsenal – Saturday, 3pm

Team news

Southampton will have forwards Armando Broja and Shane Long back in contention for Saturday’s Premier League clash with Arsenal.

On-loan Albania international Broja missed last weekend’s 6-0 thrashing at the hands of Chelsea as he was ineligible to face his parent club, while Long was absent due to an ankle issue.

Goalkeeper Alex McCarthy and defender Lyanco have returned to training following hamstring injuries and are closing in on first-team returns, while Saints boss Ralph Hasenhuttl is monitoring “one or two smaller issues” in his squad.

Arsenal boss Mikel Arteta will continue to be without a number of players while Alexandre Lacazette could also miss out for “private reasons”.

Thomas Partey (thigh) has had another assessment and Arteta admitted it was not looking positive in terms of his potential availability before the end of the season.

Kieran Tierney and Takehiro Tomiyasu remain on the long-term injured list.

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FREE TO WATCH: Highlights from Brighton’s win against Arsenal in the Premier League.

Jones Knows prediction

Ralph Hasenhuttl’s teams are all about momentum. When they are flying, they are flying. When they are bad, they are very bad. After losing just once in 10 games, they are now on a run of four defeats in five Premier League matches – and they were truly spanked by Chelsea last weekend.

This might be just what Arsenal need after back-to-back defeats but I would not be rushing to back them at 10/11 with Sky Bet. For the purposes of a prediction, I will side with them to come through a tight game with a one-goal margin victory.

That goal stands a fair chance of coming from a set piece. Saints have conceded a Premier League-high 12 headed goals this season, including in the corresponding fixture when Gabriel headed home.

This has triggered my interest in the Arsenal defender in the player shots markets, where he is priced up at 5/6 to have a shot on goal. The Arsenal defender, who has three goals to his name this season, is an aggressive attacker of a set piece and has fired 26 shots on goal this season.

That works out at just under a shot a game, so the basic maths tell you that against a team that Arsenal are favourites to win and are in for 14 shots across the entire team, the likelihood of Gabriel getting one of those should stand a greater chance of landing than the 5/6 available. His goalscorer prices of 18/1 to score first and 7/1 anytime are also worth considering.

SCORE PREDICTION: 0-1 | BETTING ANGLE: Gabriel to have at least one shot (10/11 with Sky Bet -Bet Here!)

Opta stats

  • Southampton have lost their last two Premier League home games against Arsenal, as many as they had in their previous 10 against them at St Mary’s (W4 D4). Saints haven’t lost three consecutive home league games against the Gunners since a run of four between 1968 and 1971.
  • Arsenal have lost just one of their last 12 Premier League games against Southampton (W7 D4), and are looking to complete their first league double over Saints since 2016-17.
  • Since a goalless draw in February 2016, Southampton have scored first in seven of their 11 Premier League meetings with Arsenal. However, they’ve only gone on to win one of those seven (D3 L3), a 3-2 victory in December 2018.
  • Southampton have conceded 10 goals in their last three home Premier League games (losing all three), as many as in their previous 13 at St Mary’s combined this season (W5 D7 L1). The Saints haven’t lost four in a row at home since November 2019.
  • Arsenal have lost their last two Premier League games, last losing three in a row in their first three of the campaign in August. The Gunners lost 2-1 at home to Brighton last week, but haven’t lost a league game on consecutive Saturdays since November 2008.

How to follow: Follow Southampton vs Arsenal in our dedicated live match blog. Highlights will also be published on the Sky Sports digital platforms and the Sky Sports Football YouTube channel from 5.15pm on Saturday.

Watford vs Brentford – Saturday, 3pm

Team news

Watford will be without forward Cucho Hernandez for the Premier League match against Brentford because of a hamstring problem.

The Colombian was forced off late in the first half of last weekend’s home defeat by Leeds, with subsequent scans confirming the injury is a serious one and could see him sidelined for the rest of the season.

Forward Samuel Kalu is carrying a minor ankle injury, while defender William Troost-Ekong has picked up a slight hamstring strain and Francisco Sierralta (calf) will also miss out.

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FREE TO WATCH: Highlights from Leeds’ win against Watford in the Premier League.

Brentford manager Thomas Frank will have Josh Dasilva available.

Dasilva had just returned to fitness before receiving a three-match ban for a red card against Newcastle on February 26.

Pontus Jansson is also ready to play but Frank Onyeka remains sidelined with an ankle problem.

Jones Knows prediction

It’s hard to believe Watford finished above Brentford in the Sky Bet Championship last season. It goes to show you how important it is to get it right off the pitch with savvy recruitment backed up by a sensible business model. Brentford have nailed it. Watford have not.

Roy Hodgson’s unbalanced and flaky side have won just two of their last 20 games in all competitions and have amassed the fewest home points (7) of any team in the top four divisions of English football.

Meanwhile, Brentford are the first promoted team to win 10 or more Premier League games in their first season since Bournemouth in 2015/16, including five of their last six. They head here full of confidence having deservedly beaten Chelsea and West Ham, so the 6/4 with Sky Bet for another victory is an easy argument to make. I am always hunting for value though and am happy to invest in Bryan Mbeumo scoring in an away win at 7/1 with Sky Bet.

Ivan Toney is grabbing much of the headlines, scoring eight goals in his last eight Premier League appearances but Mbeumo brings plenty to the table too. He’s had 16 shots in his last five games which has generated an expected goals figure of 1.8 which makes his goalscorer price look rather generous.

Plus, he’s hit the woodwork seven times in the Premier League this season – the joint-most with Leeds’ Raphinha. He’s due a bit of fortune in that regard. Back him.

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FREE TO WATCH: Highlights from Brentford’s win over West Ham in the Premier League.

SCORE PREDICTION: 0-2 | BETTING ANGLE: Brentford to win and Bryan Mbeumo to score (7/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)

Opta stats

  • Watford have lost their last two league games against Brentford, as many as they had in their previous 16 (W9 D5). They last lost more consecutively against the Bees between 1929 and 1931 (5).
  • Brentford are looking to complete their first league double over Watford since 1976-77 in the fourth tier. However, they’re winless in their last seven league visits to Vicarage Road (D2 L5).
  • Watford have lost their last nine home Premier League matches and could become only the third team to lose 10 consecutive top-flight home games in a row, after Birmingham City in February 1986 and Sunderland in August 2005. Birmingham are the only top-flight team to lose 10 in a row within the same season.
  • After picking up just four points in an 11-game run between December and February (W1 D1 L9), Brentford have won four of their last five Premier League games (L1) and are looking to win three in a row in the top-flight for the first time since September 1946.
  • Since Roy Hodgson’s first home Premier League match in charge of Watford, the Hornets are the only Premier League side without a single home point, losing all four games under Hodgson at Vicarage Road. The last manager to lose his first five home games in charge at a club was Chris Ramsey with QPR in 2015.

How to follow: Follow Watford vs Brentford in our dedicated live match blog. Highlights will also be published on the Sky Sports digital platforms and the Sky Sports Football YouTube channel from 5.15pm on Saturday.

Newcastle vs Leicester – Sunday, 2.15pm – live on Sky Sports

Team news

Newcastle midfielder Joe Willock could return to the squad for Sunday’s Premier League clash with Leicester.

Willock missed last Friday night’s 1-0 win over Wolves with a knee injury, but has returned to training after having an injection to address the niggling problem.

Winger Ryan Fraser, however, is a doubt having damaged a hamstring last weekend and illness continues to affect the camp, while defenders Kieran Trippier (fractured metatarsal) and Federico Fernandez (side strain) and striker Callum Wilson (Achilles/calf) are working their way back to full fitness.

Leicester remain without Jamie Vardy for the trip to St James’ Park. The striker is still struggling with a knee injury and missed Thursday’s 2-1 Europa Conference League quarter-final win at PSV.

Wilfred Ndidi, Danny Ward and Ryan Bertrand (all knee) are also out while Brendan Rodgers will assess those who played in Eindhoven after arriving back on Friday and Nampalys Mendy is available after being ineligible.

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FREE TO WATCH: Highlights of Newcastle’s win against Wolves in the Premier League.

Jones Knows prediction

Dan Burn is a friend of mine when it comes to overpriced centre-backs across a variety of markets. He’s not quite on my dream centre-back dinner party list just yet (Shane Duffy, Harry Maguire, Gareth McAuley, Yerry Mina and Craig Dawson if you are asking) but that may change if he delivers this weekend.

The Geordie boy has been sensational since joining from Brighton but what would put the cherry on the cake would be a goal at St James’ Park – every fan’s dream. I think Sunday could be the day for Burn up against this Leicester defence that have improved with the return of Jonny Evans and Wesley Fofana but still do not convince me when defending set pieces. The Foxes have conceded 16 Premier League goals from set pieces (excluding penalties) this season – the joint-most with Leeds.

Good quality chances have fallen Burn’s way in his nine starts for Newcastle which have equated to an expected goals figure of 0.73. Should the tallest player in the Premier League who has scored a header already this season and plays for a team that have scored 13 of their 34 goals this season from set pieces, really be 25/1 to score another? I would argue no. He’s the value play to score a header in a tight affair.

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FREE TO WATCH: Highlights from Leicester’s win over Crystal Palace in the Premier League.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1 | BETTING ANGLE: Dan Burn to score a header (25/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)

Opta stats

  • Newcastle have lost nine of their last 12 Premier League games against Leicester (W3). Their previous nine league defeats against the Foxes came across a period of 39 games (W19 D11) between 1979 and 2014.
  • Leicester have won each of their last five Premier League away games against Newcastle. In their league history, only at Leyton Orient have they won more consecutively on the road (6 between 1925 and 1980).
  • Newcastle have lost six of their seven Premier League games on Sundays this season (W1), conceding at least three goals in five of those defeats.
  • Newcastle have won each of their last four Premier League home games, as many as they had in their previous 24 at St James’ Park (D11 L9). They last won five in a row at home in March 2019.
  • Leicester have scored around four goals more than their xG total in the Premier League this season (45 goals, 40.7 xG) – only Chelsea have a bigger difference between goals scored and expected goals in the competition this term (64 goals, 56.1 xG).

How to follow: Watch Newcastle vs Leicester live on Sky Sports Main Event and Sky Sports Premier League or follow in our dedicated live match blog featuring in-game highlights. Full match highlights will also be published on the Sky Sports digital platforms and the Sky Sports Football YouTube channel at the final whistle.

West Ham vs Burnley – Sunday, 2.15pm

Team news to follow…

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FREE TO WATCH: Highlights from Brentford’s win over West Ham in the Premier League.

Jones Knows prediction

If this was a run chase, Burnley have fallen way behind on their required run rate. They can no longer block and push for singles. It’s time for the manager-less Clarets to swing for the boundaries if they are to catch Everton and Leeds above them.

Draws will no longer do. They must add to their pathetic tally of just four wins – and this game will be seen as an opportunity to do so with West Ham’s Europa League commitments causing issues with their Premier League form.

This change of mentality to playing “must win” football in the last two matches has seen a positive effect on Burnley’s attacking metrics – something that will continue to spike over the next few weeks. Games have been much more open affairs with their past two games seeing five goals scored and a total expected goals figure of 8.71 when collating both teams.

Travelling to face a West Ham side whose games at the London Stadium average 3.13 goals and have seen a both teams to score 75 per cent of the time this season, does give this game the look of a goals-heavy one. The markets have the goal line around 2.5 goals which I think is too low. This means we must attack the overs with confidence at Evens.

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FREE TO WATCH: Highlights from Norwich’s win over Burnley in the Premier League.

I also want to throw in Burnley’s corner count into the mix. They won nine against Everton and seven in their defeat to Norwich – another sign their attacking intent has gone up a notch. Only Aston Villa and Southampton have won more corners in the Premier League since March 1 than Burnley and that included a fixture with Manchester City where they won just one. Take that game out and they are averaging 7.2 corners per 90 minutes.

Therefore, Sky Bet’s lines on Burnley corners are worth backing. Those that like thumping into short prices should take a look at Burnley to win four corners at 4/6 with Sky Bet as West Ham have conceded at least four corners in their nine Premier League games but I am pushing the boat out a little further by attacking the six or more corner line at a gigantic 3/1 with Sky Bet.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2 | BETTING ANGLE: Burnley to win six or more corners (3/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)

JONES KNOWS BEST BET: Over 2.5 goals and six or more Burnley corners (13/2 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)

Opta stats

  • West Ham have failed to score in five of their last eight Premier League games against Burnley (W3 D1 L4), having found the net in each of their first seven against the Clarets (W5 D1 L1).
  • Burnley have won two of their last four Premier League away games against West Ham, as many as they had in their previous 21 league visits to Upton Park/London Stadium (D4 L15).
  • West Ham have earned 25 points from their last 27 available in home games against sides in the relegation zone (W8 D1 L0), winning each of the last six in a row. Their last such defeat was against Newcastle in December 2017.
  • West Ham have scored in each of their last 17 Premier League home games, with the Hammers last having a longer such run in the top-flight between October 1985 and January 1987 (27 games).
  • Burnley have conceded at least twice in each of their last six Premier League matches (14 goals conceded), last having a longer run of conceding 2 goals in the top-flight from October to December 1960 (10 in a row).

How to follow: Follow West Ham vs Burnley in our dedicated live match blog. Highlights will also be published on the Sky Sports digital platforms and the Sky Sports Football YouTube channel shortly after the final whistle.

How the table stands

How to watch Premier League highlights on Sky Sports Digital

Premier League clips and highlights

Image:
Premier League clips and highlights

Anybody in the UK can watch highlights for free on the Sky Sports app or the Score Centre app on your iPhone or Android:

To watch the highlights on the Sky Sports App, download the app:

Sky Sports’ digital platforms are the home of live blogs for every Premier League game, including commentary, analysis and team line-ups. Users with a free Sky ID can watch in-game clips from Sky live games in our dedicated live blogs.

How to watch with Sky Sports YouTube

Head over to Sky Sports Football YouTube channel to watch highlights for free.

You’ll be able to enjoy action from all 380 Premier League games, as well as classic Premier League moments, goal compilations, in-depth analysis and exclusive player interviews.

Since launching in 2017 the channel has amassed over 2.5m subscribers, and also houses Football League highlights and Nations League goals.