DOUG SCHOEN: Why Democrats cannot break free from the far left’s transgender demands
From Seth Moulton's debate reversal to Byron Donalds' attacks in Florida, transgender policy is emerging as a central issue in 2026 midterm campaigns.
The most formidable challenges facing establishment Democrats in November’s midterms are the success of far-left, socialist, or progressive candidates in primary elections and mainstream Democrats’ surrender to that wing of the party.
Alongside advocating for an agenda that is radical in its drive to reshape America – and is broadly unpopular – the DSA’s influence has left Democrats on the wrong side of an issue that the party has been hobbled by in the past: transgender policies.
Simply put, the DSA’s strong opposition to legislation banning biological males from competing in women’s sports has come to define where the national Democratic Party stands, much to its detriment.
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And while this problem did not suddenly become an issue – Democrats had been trending this way for years before the 2024 election – it is only getting worse and will continue to do so.
Indeed, we have already seen examples of it becoming a prominent topic in 2026 campaigns.
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In Florida, Republican gubernatorial candidate Byron Donalds has made transgender issues a central line of attack against Democrat David Jolly, including Jolly’s position on gender-affirming care for minors. Jolly disputes Donalds’ characterization of his position.
Moreover, in Massachusetts, during a debate against incumbent Democratic Sen. Ed Markey, primary challenger Rep. Seth Moulton was forced to reverse himself and walk back comments he made just two years ago.
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At the time, Moulton said, "I have two little girls, I don’t want them getting run over on a playing field by a male or formerly male athlete."
Fast-forward to their 2026 debate earlier this month: Moulton walked back his phrasing, apologizing to the trans community for any pain caused while insisting his underlying goal was to encourage open debate within the party.
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Does Moulton now fear more for his primary prospects with an increasingly dominant far-left base than he does for his daughters’ safety?
Both of these examples show the pressure Democrats face from their left flank and their refusal to distance themselves from a position the American people and most Democrats do not endorse.
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Analyses of the 2024 election compellingly suggest that this could well have played a decisive role in the outcome.
The DNC’s post-election autopsy "determined [Kamala] Harris had no answer" to "Republicans’ very effective advertisements" highlighting Harris’ position.
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Further, according to one PAC’s analysis, then-candidate Donald Trump’s "Kamala is for they/them, President Trump is for you" ad was so effective that it shifted the race almost 3 points in Trump’s favor, double his 1.5 percentage-point margin of victory in the popular vote.
The Trump campaign also pointed to the ad’s success with suburban women, a key demographic.
Make no mistake, Democrats are on the wrong side of the transgender debate given public opinion.
According to Gallup’s May 2025 survey, roughly 7 in 10 (69%) Americans – including 72% of independents and a plurality of Democrats – believe transgender athletes should only be allowed to play on sports teams that match their gender at birth.
Even among Democrats, support for allowing transgender athletes to play on teams that align with their current gender identity has dropped 10 points since 2021, now sitting below a majority, at 45% – despite party leadership’s embrace of the position.
Pew found that 49% of Americans favored requiring transgender people to use public bathrooms matching their sex at birth, while 26% opposed such policies. Americans continue to support laws that would require transgender people to use public restrooms that match their sex at birth, not the one to which they have transitioned.
However, when it came time to actually take a stand, no Democratic senators and just two Democratic House members supported a 2025 bill that sought to bar transgender athletes from competing against girls in K-12 schools.
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To that end, neither Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer nor House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries has been willing to take specific positions aligning with popular views favoring bans on transgender athletes competing in women’s sports.
Schumer has been the most explicitly opposed to the bans, calling them "despicable," while Jeffries has been more measured, simply saying that Democrats care about "fairness in sports" but refusing to support legislation seeking to bar the practice.
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In Maine, Gov. Janet Mills has publicly clashed with the Trump administration over the state’s policy allowing transgender students to participate in school sports according to their gender identity.
Ultimately, despite broad public opposition to allowing transgender athletes to compete according to their gender identity – and a sharply divided Democratic electorate – the party’s elites continue supporting policies allowing this to occur, or at best equivocate.
At the same time, the data make clear the dilemma establishment Democrats face: continue mollifying the far left, or risk having the transgender issue hurt the party in general elections.
Put another way, the far left’s and DSA’s veto over Democratic policy puts the entire party on the wrong side of another key issue. And unfortunately, all signs point to this problem continuing to be a drag on Democratic support in the midterms and into the 2028 presidential election.