Sleeper GOP candidate puts blue-leaning state in play as fraud scandal shadows Dems

Republicans are eyeing a rare Senate pickup opportunity in Minnesota, where GOP nominee Michele Tafoya is narrowing the gap with Democratic Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, prompting Fox News to move the race toward Republicans less than three weeks before Election Day.

It's been nearly a quarter-century since Republicans last won a Senate election in the blue-leaning state. But Tafoya, a former longtime NFL sideline reporter, is aiming to break that losing streak by flipping the seat held by retiring Democratic Sen. Tina Smith.

A new Minnesota Star Tribune/KARE 11 poll shows Tafoya trailing Flanagan by just four percentage points. On Tuesday, the Fox News Power Rankings shifted the race to the right, from Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat.

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"The more that Minnesotans learn about me and my opponent and see what my opponent has failed to do over the last eight years alongside [Democratic Gov.] Tim Walz they're understanding Minnesota needs change. We need fresh ideas, we need an independent thinker, and they're jumping on board," Tafoya said in a Fox News Digital interview.

Fox News Digital reached out to the Flanagan campaign for comment, but didn't receive a response at the time this story was published.

The race is unfolding against the backdrop of Minnesota's massive welfare assistance fraud scandal, which has attracted national attention for nearly a year and prompted Democratic Gov. Tim Walz to abandon his 2026 re-election bid. The scandal has also become a central issue in Tafoya's campaign against Flanagan.

Tafoya highlighted that "there has been historic fraud under this administration, where Peggy Flanagan, my opponent, has been the second-in-charge in this state. And not only was the money stolen, it hollowed out these programs that were supposed to be getting help like kids' meals or autistic kids or seniors who were supposed to be getting visits, health visits, wellness visits, and so that's been hollowed out."

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"Walz understood that he was not going to win another term as governor with these conditions, but my opponent thinks she deserves a promotion. I think people are starting to realize she deserves a pink slip," Tafoya argued.

Flanagan has said she is "incredibly angry with the fraud," has acknowledged public frustration over the scandal and that more could have been done sooner to catch and prevent the fraud. The lieutenant governor has noted that she was not in charge of the state agencies at the center of the scandals or steering the daily state response. She has also distanced herself from Walz, who has accepted blame for the fraud.

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"It's wall to wall coverage on every nightly news program here for months and months. We're seeing it in polling," Minnesota-based veteran national Republican strategist Kirsten Kukowski told Fox News Digital.

Pointing to Flanagan, Kukowski said she has "a lot of fraud baggage...and it's really made the Senate race really tight here."

Tafoya is also highlighting a recent spate of gang-related shootings in the Minneapolis-St. Paul suburbs, and on Monday announced a five-point-plan to combat the violence.

"We will do more in our first eight weeks as a US Senator than Peggy Flanagan has done in eight years as the second in charge," she told Fox News Digital.

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"First of all, we've got to name the problem, and even Somali lawmakers and law enforcement have named this problem. We have a Somali gang violence problem. We've got to name it. She refuses to name it. You can't fix it if you don't name it," Tafoya emphasized as she referred to Flanagan.

Flanagan, a progressive candidate backed by left-wing champions Sens. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren and Rep. Ro Khanna, topped more moderate Democratic Rep. Angie Craig by roughly 20 points in the August Senate primary.

Tafoya grabbed over 50% of the vote in the GOP Senate primary, as she topped a crowded field of rivals. She was heavily recruited by national Republicans including Sen. Tim Scott, the National Republican Senatorial Committee chair.

"We did a really good job of recruiting the most independent-minded Republican who understands why it's important to win in Minnesota," Scott said in an interview on Fox News' "Hannity."

Scott said, "Michele Tafoya has a story to tell. She's doing a really good job. This is a race that will come down to the wire."

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Senate Majority Leader John Thune, the top Republican in the chamber, recently teamed up on the campaign trail in Minnesota with Tafoya. But the Thune-aligned Senate Leadership Fund, the top super PAC backing GOP Senate candidates, has yet to make a major investment in the race.

Asked about national Republican support, Tafoya said "we are getting small dollar donations from all over the country. We're getting donations from every county in this state, and I am a happy warrior, and I will deal with the circumstances I'm given... We're going to win this campaign on ideas."

Democrats are hopeful that popular Democratic Sen. Amy Klobuchar, who is running for governor this year, may help push Flanagan over the finish line.

"Our latest poll has Flanagan with a strong lead, and we fully expect her to be elected to the U.S. Senate," Lauren French, communications director for the Senate Democrat-aligned Senate Majority PAC, told Fox News Digital.

French argued that "Republicans are spending in deep red states, and watching the battleground map extend around them. Their desperate last-minute attempt to push Minnesota into play is a political ploy."

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Flanagan has repeatedly tied Tafoya to President Donald Trump, whose approval ratings are well underwater in Minnesota.

"Michele Tafoya is all in for Donald Trump — and he's all in for her," Flanagan reiterated Monday in a social media post.

Flanagan, who is Native American, also wrote on X, "My Ojibwe name is Gizhiiwewidamookwe, which means ‘Speaks in a Loud and Clear Voice Woman.’ I’m going to be Minnesota’s voice in the U.S. Senate — not Donald Trump’s."

But Tafoya appears to be putting some daylight between herself and Trump, as she highlights her support for abortion rights.

"I’m a pro-choice Republican not afraid to stand up to my party," Tafoya says in a new campaign commercial. "When Trump is right, I will work with him. When he is wrong, I will stand up for Minnesota."

The ad was quickly criticized by leaders on the right.

Among them was Mercedes Schlapp, a senior fellow at the Conservative Political Action Conference, who said on social media, "Pro-life Republicans will stay home after watching this ad."

But hours later, Trump gave Tafoya a plug, telling the crowd at an Ohio rally he headlined, "You have to vote for Michele Tafoya, who’s a very respected person."