Reporter’s Notebook: House leadership up for grabs as GOP reckons with devastating losses

Internal House and Senate party leadership elections are some of the most fascinating exercises to unfold on Capitol Hill.

Both House and Senate Democrats and House and Senate Republicans will choose their leaders in the coming days. And the changes are going to be seismic.

But not everyone is on board with heir apparent leaders. That’s what makes this process so intriguing. However, there are only two rules in leadership elections: You can’t beat someone with no one. And — perhaps more importantly — it’s about the math.

Republicans are up first with elections in both chambers starting Tuesday morning.

THE HITCHHIKER’S GUIDE TO WHAT HAPPENS NEXT ON CAPITOL HILL

For Minority Leader, House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-La., is running against Rep. Jim Jordan, R-Ohio. Current House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., is not seeking to stay in leadership once his party isn't in charge anymore.

If Democrats have 260 seats, Republicans would have 175. All incoming House Republicans (including non-voting delegates from U.S. territories) are allowed to vote in conference. The selection of Minority Leader does NOT go before the entire House like Speaker. So, the winning candidate only needs a simple majority. That would be 88.

The same for the race between House Majority Whip Tom Emmer, R-Minn., and Rep. August Pfluger, R-Texas, for Minority Whip.

Senate Republican leader John Thune, R-S.D., is running to keep his leadership position for the party in the new Congress.

Meanwhile, Democrats will begin elections for their House leader on Wednesday where Rep. Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., is expected to secure that nomination. No internal Democrat Senate leadership election date has been set.

There are some progressives and Democratic Socialists of America-affiliated Democrats who will be House Members next year who want someone other than Minority Leader Jeffries keep his position.

Who do they want instead? Well, no one has said. Again, you can’t beat someone with no one. And frankly, it’s hard to believe that Democrats would not elect the first Black Speaker of the House.

But drill down on the math.

For the sake of argument, let’s say Democrats have 260 House seats in the new Congress. First, Democrats must tap a nominee for Speaker in their Caucus. That needs a simple majority. So surely Jeffries will score at least 131 votes in a private ballot for Speaker.

The Speaker of the House is the Constitutional officer for the legislative branch of government – much like the President is for the executive branch and the Chief Justice of the United States for the judicial branch. Thus, the ENTIRE House votes for Speaker when it convenes the new Congress at noon on January 3.

There are 435 Members. If all Members cast ballots, Jeffries simply needs 218. Jeffries could lose 40 votes or so and still prevail. So that is not going to happen. He might not even lose more than a couple votes, frankly.

The Senate Democratic Caucus and Republican Conference work much the same way as the House. A simple majority wins for Majority Leader in the Democratic Caucus and Minority Leader in the Republican Conference. However, the selection of Senate Majority Leader is not a vote which plays out on the floor. The concept of "Senate Majority Leader" has only been around since the early 20th Century and is not mentioned in the Constitution. Remember what we said about the House Speaker being the head of this branch of government.

It would be hard to envision a scenario where Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., would not become Majority Leader after Democrats flipped the Senate in a beat down.

First, who else is running? Well, Sen. Brian Schatz, D-Hawaii, is very popular among Senate Democrats. But he’s running for Majority Whip to succeed retiring Senate Minority Whip Dick Durbin, D-Ill. One could see Democrats defaulting to Schatz if something happens with Schumer.

Sen.-elect Abdul El-Sayed, D-Mich., said he wants to look at his options and endorsed Sen. Chris Van Hollen, D-Md., for Majority Leader. But Van Hollen isn’t running. Sen.-elect Annie Andrews, D-S.C., told colleague Bret Baier she wants a "generational change" in leadership. Sen.-elect Troy Jackson, D-Maine, and Sen.-elect Adam Hamilton, D-Kan., both said they would oppose Schumer.

But again, you can’t beat someone with no one.

REPORTER'S NOTEBOOK: HOW MIDTERMS MAY CHANGE THE HOUSE IMPEACHMENT EQUATION FOR HEGSETH

Here’s the math:

Let’s say Democrats do win Mississippi and Alaska, giving them 56 senators who caucus with the Democrats. All Schumer needs is 29 Democrats to support him in Caucus and he’s the next Majority Leader.

There has not been as much rumbling about the future of Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D. Heretofore, President Trump has not called for new leadership in the Senate. But a group of Senate Republicans are calling on a delay in leadership elections slated for Tuesday. Senate Republicans would choose Thune or anyone else on a secret ballot in the Senate GOP Conference. A simple majority would win. If Republicans are down to 44 seats, the winner would just need 23 votes.

So for the next couple of weeks, there’s a lot of counting. Counting about votes for impeachment. Counting in leadership elections. And next year, counting votes as Democrats try to enact their agenda.

Democrats will say voters are counting on them. And Republicans, well, they may be counting the days.

Everything in the new Congress will come down to the math. And there's the issue of impeaching Pentagon Chief Pete Hegseth.

But forget about Democrats pushing the move next year. Try Republicans — THIS year.

Rep. Thomas Massie, R-Ky., is reintroducing articles of impeachment for Pentagon Chief Pete Hegseth this week. The chances are increasingly high that the House could in fact impeach Hegseth.

Why?

Massie tried to impeach Hegseth before the midterms. But the House adjourned a day early in September. That nixed Massie’s effort. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) condemned the effort by the Kentucky Republican. But Johnson insisted that he didn’t send Members home early because of fear that the House had the votes to impeach Hegseth.

Massie attempted to execute a parliamentary move which would compel the House to consider the impeachment articles right away. But they expired once the House went out of session. But Massie will resuscitate them.

GOP LAWMAKER SAYS MORE QUALIFIED OFFICIALS SHOULD LEAD PENTAGON, QUESTIONS HEGSETH'S 'MORAL COMPASS

Massie authored a total of eight articles of impeachment, ranging from the "kidnapping" of Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro to how the Pentagon is running the war in Iran.

It’s possible the House could move to table the articles, or send them to committee, euthanizing the effort. But a growing number of House Republicans are grumbling about Hegseth. Any effort to dismiss the articles in the House might not work.

It’s about the math.

All Democrats are likely to vote to impeach Hegseth. Some Republicans are exasperated by Hegseth and have said privately they’d like to impeach. There are even more Republicans trying to build distance between themselves and President Trump after the midterms. That’s augmented by the fact that Republicans believe the war in Iran cost them control of Congress. Thus, even more Republicans may be willing to impeach. Finally, the GOP may have attendance problems. Republican Members who lost – or were shocked that they lost – might not show up. In other words, there may be more Democrats in the House than Republicans. And don’t forget that some Republicans are now looking for a scapegoat after the election.

A simple majority is necessary to impeach.

If adopted, the House would send the articles of impeachment to the Senate. Under Senate rules of impeachment, the Senate must at least receive and consider the articles. But it could move quickly to dismiss. That’s what happened when the Senate considered articles of impeachment for former Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas a few years ago. The bona fide "trial" part of the process never happened where the Senate heard arguments, listened to witnesses and took evidence.

It takes a simple majority to dismiss such articles. Believe it or not, this could happen under a Republican-controlled Senate. But how might outgoing Sens. John Cornyn, R-Texas, Thom Tillis, R-N.C., and Bill Cassidy, R-La., vote? That’s to say nothing of Sens. Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska, John Curtis, R-Alaska, Todd Young, R-Ind., and others.

It takes a two-thirds vote to convict and remove in a Senate impeachment trial.

In addition, unlike legislation, articles of impeachment carry over into the new Congress. Would a new Democratically-controlled Senate want to get bogged down in an impeachment trial from the start? Especially when new Democrats want to vote on affordability and health care?

Or, would a Democratic Senate embrace the idea of a full-blown impeachment trial for Hegseth – especially since the execution of the war in Iran seems to be one of the main reasons for this week’s electoral shellacking?

Some of this hinges on who both parties in each body select as their leaders.