The midterm races to watch if you care about money, Musk, and the AI boom

• The midterms will be, in part, a referendum on AI and Big Tech backlash.
• SpaceX CEO Elon Musk, in particular, has a lot at stake.
• Here are the key races that we're watching.

The 2026 midterms have arrived.

Beyond control of Congress, Tuesday's election will illustrate the extent of Silicon Valley's political power and the breadth of the AI backlash.

SpaceX CEO Elon Musk, in particular, has a lot at stake, with record donations powering a last-minute effort to save a Texas Senate seat and perhaps the GOP majority, too.

In addition to the candidates, there are big ballot questions looming, none more so than the California wealth tax fight.

Here's what we're watching.

Ohio Senate

Candidates: Sen. Jon Husted, a Republican; former Sen. Sherrod Brown, a Democrat; Bill Redpath, a libertarian; and Greg Levy, an independent

Where it stands: Husted, a former lieutenant governor, is trying to hang on to Vice President JD Vance's Senate seat, but he's facing a fierce challenge from Brown, a former three-term senator who is seeking to return to Congress. Brown has criticized Husted for his previous support for data center development. Husted has said the issue should be left to communities and no longer supports offering tax incentives for new data center construction. Earlier this summer, Senate Republicans' campaign arm warned AI labs that if Husted goes down "and data centers get the blame, politicians across the country will take notice — and they will not go near the next one."

Polls close: 7:30 p.m. EST

The outlook: Cook Political Report rates it as a "Toss-Up."

History: President Donald Trump won the state by 11 points. Brown lost to now-Sen. Bernie Moreno, a Republican, by just under 4 points.

Texas Senate

Candidates: Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, a Republican; State Rep. James Talarico, a Democrat; Ted Brown, a libertarian

Where it stands: Paxton is hoping to keep the seat in Republican hands after Trump's endorsement pushed him over Sen. John Cornyn following a bitter primary and runoff. Cornyn warned that if Paxton won, Republicans would have to spend significant sums to help an officeholder saddled with scandals, impeachment, and a divorce on "biblical grounds." Enter Musk. The world's richest man has been frequently trashing Talarico on X. More importantly, Musk has donated at least $158 million that has been routed to a pro-Paxton super PAC.

Polls close: Most polls in the state close at 8 p.m. EST, but for locations in the Mountain Time Zone they close at 9 p.m. EST.

The outlook: Cook Political Report rates it as a "Toss-Up."

History: In 2024, President Donald Trump won the state by roughly 14 points. Sen. Ted Cruz, a Republican, won reelection by just under 9 points. No Texas Democrat has won a statewide election since 1994.

Michigan Senate

Candidates: Former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed, a Democrat; former Rep. Mike Rogers, a Republican; Douglas P. Marsh, Green Party; Lydia Christensen, Libertarian Party

Where it stands: No race compares to the drama of the Michigan Senate race. On Sunday, Rep. Haley Stevens, who lost to El-Sayed after a bitter primary, reversed herself and issued a last-minute endorsement of Rogers. Beyond the headlines, the race offers some interesting policy contrasts. Echoing Sen. Bernie Sanders (and Trump), El-Sayed has called for the government to take equity stakes in AI companies. El-Sayed also wants to force tech giants like Microsoft to divest from AI companies like OpenAI and Anthropic. Rogers, the Republican hopeful, has called for a pause on data center development in the state. If Republicans want to hold the majority, Rogers will almost certainly need to flip the seat.

Polls close: Most polls in the state close at 8 p.m. EST. For counties in the Central Time Zone, polls close at 9 p.m EST.

The outlook: Cook Political Report rates it as a "Lean Democrat."

History: In 2024, Trump won by just over 1 point. At the same time, Sen. Elissa Slotkin narrowly beat Rogers by roughly 202,000 votes. Michigan has not elected a Republican senator since 1994.

Michigan 7th District

Candidates: Rep. Tom Barrett, a Republican; Sunrise Movement cofounder William Lawrence, a Democrat; Shane Dedrick, Green Party

Where it stands: Barrett is seeking reelection in a southern Michigan district centered around Lansing. William Lawrence, a cofounder of the progressive climate-focused organization Sunrise Movement, has tried to tie Barrett to a proposed $1 billion hyperscale data center near Mason, Michigan. Barrett has said that local officials should be able to make decisions about data centers, contrasting his views with Lawrence's support of a data center moratorium.

The outlook: Cook Political Report rates it a "Toss-Up."

History: In 2024, Trump won the district by just over 1 point, according to The Downballot's estimates. Barrett won by just under 17,000 votes.

Ohio 9th District

Candidates: Rep. Marcy Kaptur, a Democrat; former Ohio state Rep. Derek Merrin, a Republican

Where it stands: Republicans' hopes of defying history and retain their majority run squarely through Rep. Marcy Kaptur, a 22-term Ohio Democrat, and her northwestern Ohio district that stretches from the Indiana border to just west of Cleveland. Kaptur has criticized Merrin for voting in favor of tax incentives for data center development. Merrin has said Kaptur is "lying" about his record, but as part of a sweeping 2017 budget law, Ohio lawmakers voted to extend the deadline for certain data centers to qualify for tax incentives.

The outlook: The Cook Political Report rates it as a "Lean Democrat."

History: In 2024, Trump won the district by roughly 11 points, according to The Downballot's estimates. Kaptur won by under 2,400 votes. Kaptur is one of 22 Democrats representing districts that Trump also won.

Pennsylvania 1st District

Candidates: Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, a Republican; Bucks County commissioner Bob Harvie, a Democrat

Where it stands: Fitzpatrick, a five-term Pennsylvania Republican, romped to reelection two years ago but is now fighting to hang onto his seat. Harvie focused his first ad of the general election on his call for a data center moratorium. He also blasted Fitzpatrick over the Republican's previous support for a massive Amazon data center in Falls Township, which is in Bucks County.

Polls close: 8 p.m. EST

The outlook: The Cook Political Report rates it as a "Toss-Up."

History: In 2024, Trump narrowly lost the district, according to The Downballot's estimates. Fitzpatrick still easily won reelection by nearly 13 points. He is one of just three Republican lawmakers representing districts Trump lost.

Wisconsin 3rd District

Candidates: Rep. Derrick Van Orden, a Republican; Rebecca Cooke, a Democrat

Where it stands: Van Orden, a two-term Wisconsin Republican, is trying to hold on to his western Wisconsin district, which includes Eau Claire and La Crosse. Cooke, a former political consultant who now works as a waitress, has echoed Sen. Bernie Sanders' call for a federal moratorium on data center development. Cooke has also hammered Van Orden over data centers. In response, Van Orden has accused Cooke of working too closely with tech groups.

Polls close: 9 p.m. EST

The outlook: The Cook Political Report rates it as "Lean Democrat."

History: In 2024, Trump won the district by over 7 points, according to The Downballot's estimates. Van Orden defeated Cooke by roughly 3 points.

California billionaire tax

What's on the ballot: A one-time 5% tax on Californians with over $1 billion in wealth. Two competing proposals would effectively nullify the proposed tax.

The sides: The Service Employees International Union-United Healthcare Workers West labor union proposed the tax. Rep. Ro Khanna, a Democrat who is a possible 2028 candidate, has lent his support, as has Sen. Bernie Sanders. Gov. Gavin Newsom, another possible 2028 candidate, is opposing the measure. A number of Silicon Valley elites are also in opposition, including Google cofounder Sergey Brin.

Polls close: 11 p.m. EST

The outlook: There's been little polling this fall. The few public polls have been all over the place. A recent UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies-Los Angeles Times survey found opponents had a 50% to 42% edge among likely voters.

Be prepared to wait: California has a lot of votes to count, and historically some races have taken days or even weeks to call. The fact that there are three intertwined ballot initiatives may also make it more difficult for news organizations to project a winner. In the event that multiple initiatives pass, the one that receives the most affirmative votes generally trumps conflicting ones.