CNCB News

• Doug Petno and Troy Rohrbaugh became front-runners in JPMorgan's succession race Thursday.
• Less than two years ago, three women had been among the top contenders for Jamie Dimon's job.
• Here's how the dynamics shifted, leaving it unlikely that a woman will lead another major US bank soon.

Less than two years ago, it seemed reasonably likely that a woman would be the next person to lead JPMorgan. As of Thursday, that seems a very slim possibility.

JPMorgan named Doug Petno and Troy Rohrbaugh, current co-heads of the bank's commercial and investment bank, as co-presidents, setting them up as the frontrunners to succeed longtime CEO Jamie Dimon. Their promotions, the bank said in a press release, "are part of the Board's ongoing succession planning process."

Petno and Rohrbaugh were among a handful of powerhouse candidates poised to succeed Dimon, including Jennifer Piepszak, chief operating officer, Marianne Lake, CEO of the commercial bank, and Mary Erdoes, CEO of asset and wealth management.

How, in a mere 18 months, did the field narrow from predominantly women to all male?

Dimon has led JPMorgan since 2006, and his leadership during the 2008 financial crisis cemented his status as one of the most trusted figures on the Street. Yet he celebrated his 70th birthday this year, and questions about who would fill his shoes have circled for more than a decade.

When Dimon underwent treatment for throat cancer in 2014, the Wall Street Journal reported that Erdoes was among the top two contenders to take over, should there be an immediate leadership change. Lake was also listed among the longer-term succession candidates.

Come 2020, Citi announced that Jane Fraser would become its CEO, making her the first woman to lead a major US bank. When The New York Times published an article speculating which women might follow in Fraser's footsteps, Lake and Piepszak were at the top of the list.

Five years later, Piepszak became JPMorgan's chief operating officer, a promotion that, on its face, would have made her the most likely to succeed Dimon. Yet she said she had no interest in the job, effectively taking herself out of the race.

And on Thursday, Lake did something similar by announcing her retirement after more than 25 years at the firm. That leaves Erdoes, whose position remains unchanged, according to the release. She wasn't mentioned in the part of the announcement explicitly about succession, and her name only came up in the last paragraph of the press release.

Though Lake's departure refigures the race's dynamics, it's not entirely surprising that Rohrbaugh and Petno emerged as front-runners. Erdoes, for one, runs a much smaller business than the two of them — in the first quarter of this year, the commercial and investment bank generated $9 billion in net income, compared with $1.8 billion in asset and wealth management.

Her name came up in headlines about Jeffrey Epstein earlier this year, as the two exchanged emails when she was one of his primary contacts at the bank. There's no indication that her communications with Epstein have had any bearing on the succession race, and JPMorgan declined to comment on the matter.

Even with Thursday's announcement, women are still embedded in JPMorgan's innermost inner circle — seven of the people on the thirteen-person operating committee are women.

Despite the rise of the girlboss, it remains difficult for women to reach the highest echelons of Wall Street, still seen in many ways as a, if not the, boys' club. Last year, David Solomon, the CEO of Goldman Sachs, said the bank hadn't made enough progress in elevating women to leadership roles. It appears that Fraser will remain the only woman leading a major US firm for the foreseeable future.

Dimon is uniquely embedded as a Wall Street leader, since investors laud his performance. Analysts from Bank of America said in a note that Lake's retirement suggests Dimon will remain CEO for several more years.

"While the departure of Lake — widely regarded in the industry as one of the best banking executives — is a loss no doubt, we believe the implication that the move indicates several more years of Dimon as CEO is a far bigger positive," the note read.

Wells Fargo banking analyst Mike Mayo, meanwhile, said he was "surprised and puzzled" to see Lake — a "star executive" — depart. But that's one cost of having a CEO as successful and long-tenured as Dimon.

The flip side is that JPMorgan "manufactures CEOs," Mayo said. "The next Marianne Lake is probably being groomed."